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Creators/Authors contains: "du_Plessis, Marcel"

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  1. Abstract. In coastal polynyas, where sea-ice formation and melting occur, it is crucial to have accurate estimates of heat fluxes in order to predict future sea-ice dynamics. The Amundsen Sea Polynya is a coastal polynya in Antarctica that remains poorly observed by in situ observations because of its remoteness. Consequently, we rely on models and reanalysis that are un-validated against observations to study the effect of atmospheric forcing on polynya dynamics. We use austral summer 2022 shipboard data to understand the turbulent heat flux dynamics in the Amundsen Sea Polynya and evaluate our ability to represent these dynamics in ERA5. We show that cold- and dry-air outbreaks from Antarctica enhance air–sea temperature and humidity gradients, triggering episodic heat loss events. The ocean heat loss is larger along the ice-shelf front, and it is also where the ERA5 turbulent heat flux exhibits the largest biases, underestimating the flux by up to 141 W m−2 due to its coarse resolution. By reconstructing a turbulent heat flux product from ERA5 variables using a nearest-neighbor approach to obtain sea surface temperature, we decrease the bias to 107 W m−2. Using a 1D model, we show that the mean co-located ERA5 heat loss underestimation of 28 W m−2 led to an overestimation of the summer evolution of sea surface temperature (heat content) by +0.76 °C (+8.2×107 J) over 35 d. By obtaining the reconstructed flux, the reduced heat loss bias (12 W m−2) reduced the seasonal bias in sea surface temperature (heat content) to −0.17 °C (−3.30 × 107 J) over the 35 d. This study shows that caution should be applied when retrieving ERA5 turbulent flux along the ice shelves and that a reconstructed flux using ERA5 variables shows better accuracy. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2026
  2. Southern Ocean air–sea fluxes are a critical component of the climate system but are historically undersampled due to the remoteness of the region. While much focus has been placed on interannual flux variability, it has become increasingly clear that high-frequency fluctuations, driven by processes like storms and (sub-)mesoscale eddies, play a nonnegligible role in longer-term changes. Therefore, collecting high-resolution in situ flux observations is crucial to better understand the dynamics operating at these scales, as well as their larger-scale impacts. Technological advancements, including the development of new uncrewed surface vehicles, provide the opportunity to increase sampling at small scales. However, determining where and when to deploy such vehicles is not trivial. This study, conceived by the Air–Sea Fluxes working group of the Southern Ocean Observing System, aims to characterize the statistics of high-frequency air–sea flux variability. Using statistical analyses of atmospheric reanalysis data, numerical model output, and mooring observations, we show that there are regional and seasonal variations in the magnitude and sign of storm- and eddy-driven air–sea flux anomalies, which can help guide the planning of field campaigns and deployment of uncrewed surface vehicles in the Southern Ocean. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2026
  3. Free, publicly-accessible full text available August 1, 2026